World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill warns that a prolonged US-Iran conflict could push global growth down to about 1.3% in 2026, from 2.9% last year, with inflation potentially reaching 4.5% as energy prices surge and trade routes are disrupted. The Bank’s June Global Economic Prospects scenarios suggest the worst-case outcome—hostilities continuing for six months or more—is increasingly plausible, triggering knock-on effects on energy and agricultural supply chains. Disruptions to oil infrastructure and blockades in key chokepoints could hamper fertilizers, helium, and sulfur supplies, worsening food insecurity in vulnerable and indebted economies. Higher inflation could compel central banks to maintain elevated interest rates, increasing borrowing costs and squeezing public services in developing nations still recovering from COVID-19. The outlook highlights heightened debt distress among emerging markets, with many countries potentially facing accelerated fiscal strain and tighter policy spaces. The warnings echo across multiple outlets, underscoring a shared assessment that the conflict’s trajectory could upend energy markets, inflation, and growth worldwide.