Markets navigate a backdrop of higher oil prices and US dollar strength as the ECB action unfolds. The ECB hiked 25 basis points and signaled inflation should return to 2% by 2028, with policymakers emphasizing that risks to inflation remain temporary and linked to energy costs. The euro remains around 1.14 per dollar ahead of policy communications, with rate differentials and energy costs keeping it sensitive to shifts. The euro versus the yen and sterling shows mixed moves as traders weigh the ECB stance, BoJ outlook, and UK fiscal debates, with expectations of further tightening into September. Oil-driven dynamics and safe-haven demand continue to cap upside for EUR/USD in the near term, as markets price paths through 2027. Overall, central-bank expectations (ECB, Fed, BoJ) and geopolitical risks dominate the currency picture.