A JPMorgan analysis and related reporting warn that a “super” El Niño, already likely this year, combined with higher energy prices from Middle East conflict and oil supply disruptions, could keep global inflation elevated into 2027. The bank estimates an 81% chance of El Niño reaching a very strong or super phase by year-end, with inflation pressures peaking in food and energy markets that could lift global food inflation by about 0.7 percentage points and overall inflation by roughly 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points in different scenarios. The combination of drought- or rainfall-driven agricultural disruption and higher transport and packaging costs from oil and diesel price increases could push inflation higher by about 1.3% to 1.5% in some cases, especially in food-led economies. Emerging markets are expected to bear the brunt of these shocks, potentially delaying rate cuts and keeping local yields and currencies under strain. The reports emphasize that while either development alone might be manageable, their concurrence creates a meaningful, global inflation upside and uneven country-by-country impacts. These dynamics are shaping investor focus on food-sensitive economies in Asia and Latin America, and on central banks’ policies as they navigate slower inflation declines next year.