Can Senate Republicans Defy Conventional Wisdom In Midterms?

If prediction markets only give Republicans a 15% chance of expanding their Senate majority, take that bet.

Conventional wisdom says 2026 should be a difficult cycle for the GOP. President Trump’s approval is underwater, history favors the party out of power, and voters remain sour on the economy and the Iran war. But Senate majorities aren’t won on national mood. They’re won one state at a time.

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats. Given the map this year, they have a realistic path to protect all their vulnerable incumbents and net at least one pickup.

Start with North Carolina. Former Gov. Roy Cooper is the strongest recruit Democrats could have hoped for and early polling makes him the favorite. But the state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 2008, and Trump carried it in all three of his presidential campaigns. This is a must win for Democrats and it’s no guarantee.

Maine will be more difficult. Republican Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term in a state Kamala Harris carried by seven points, making it one of Democrats’ clearest pickup opportunities. But the race was thrown into turmoil when Democratic nominee Graham Platner withdrew after a series of scandals, culminating in a rape allegation that led to his exit, with no obvious strong replacement emerging.

Republicans may have preferred to face a scandal-plagued nominee, but Collins’ eventual opponent will now be largely unknown to both primary and general election voters. Collins is arguably one of the strongest incumbents in the country, outperforming Trump by nearly 18 percentage points in 2020. What once appeared to be a straightforward pickup opportunity for Democrats is now far less certain.

Given the political environment and the dynamics of these races, Democrats will probably win at least one. But if a few things break Republicans’ way, they’re more than capable of holding both.

The next tier of Democratic targets only gets tougher. Alaska, Iowa and Ohio have all shifted right during the country’s decade-long political realignment.

Mary Peltola is a strong recruit, but she’s running in Alaska, a state Trump carried by 13 points and has sent only one Democrat to the Senate in 50 years.

Iowa tells a similar story. Republicans have won every Senate race there since 2010, and Trump carried it comfortably three times in a row. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown is as good as it gets for Democrats, but he already lost reelection despite the most expensive campaign in state history.

That leaves Texas, the Democrats’ white whale. Every cycle they convince themselves it’s finally within reach, but the closest they’ve come in the past three decades was Beto O’Rourke in 2018, who raised a record $80 million and still lost by three points.

This year follows a familiar script.

Republicans nominated a damaged candidate in Ken Paxton. Democrats have a charismatic challenger in James Talarico. And the polling looks close.

But Talarico may be exactly the wrong kind of Democrat for Texas. He has called God “non-binary,” defended abortion access for transgender people, and described the American flag as a complicated symbol.

These positions won’t play with the conservative swing voters that Democrats need to win statewide. That leaves them with Paxton’s baggage. But Texas voters have had repeated opportunities to reject Paxton and haven’t. They returned him to the attorney general’s office after his impeachment, and just handed him a decisive Senate primary victory. Against a candidate like Talarico, even a wounded Paxton should still be favored.

Unless Democrats clear every one of those hurdles, Republicans will keep their 53-seat majority. And if they do, the map doesn’t end there.

Michigan is the first opportunity.

Democrats are likely to nominate Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive backed by Bernie Sanders, Rashida Tlaib, and Hasan Piker, the podcaster who once said America deserved 9/11. El-Sayed wrote the book on Medicare for All and has also called for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. That’s a profile Republicans would happily run against in a state Trump carried twice.

New Hampshire is the second opportunity.

Republicans are poised to nominate former Senator John Sununu, whose family has dominated New Hampshire politics for decades. Sununu served in Congress from 1997 to 2009 and will likely face Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas. Kamala Harris won the state by less than three points, and a late June poll showed Sununu and Pappas in a statistical tie. Republicans could very well steal this one.

Georgia is the last opportunity, but also the GOP’s biggest reach.

Trump carried the state in 2024, Republicans continue to win statewide offices, and incumbent Sen. John Ossoff has never won a November Senate election outright, only a runoff. His liberal voting record could also prove damaging in a traditionally conservative state.

But Ossoff has amassed a massive $42 million war chest, and current polls show him headed for reelection. Even with a potential outside spending advantage, Republicans may find the national environment and Georgia’s shifting demographics too much to overcome. Still, don’t be surprised if this race is much closer on Election Day than it looks today.

Democrats will have to run the table just to reach a tied Senate, and their path is far narrower than conventional wisdom suggests. If they fall short anywhere along the way, Republicans keep the majority. From there, Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia are opportunities to grow it.

The smart money is on more Republicans in the Senate, not less.

Sam Kay is a pollster at the Republican political consulting firm OnMessage Inc.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.