World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill warns that a protracted US-Iran clash could shrink global growth to about 1.3% in 2026, with inflation near 4.5% as energy prices surge and trade routes and supply chains are disrupted, prompting higher policy rates. The fallout would hit vulnerable, debt-burdened economies hardest by squeezing essential public services and raising borrowing costs, with spillovers for energy, commodities, and global markets as fertilizers, helium, and sulfur supplies are disrupted.
