War in Donbas

Background

Despite being recognised as an independent country since 1991, as a former USSR constituent republic, Ukraine was perceived by the leadership of Russia as part of its sphere of influence. In a 2002 paper Taras Kuzio stated "While accepting Ukrainian independence, Putin has sought to draw Ukraine into a closer relationship. This approach has been acceptable to eastern Ukrainian oligarchs, who do not harbour anti-Russian feelings".

In 2011, Kuzio stated:

The traditional Soviet policy of dividing eastern against western Ukrainians, then "bourgeois nationalists" and now "crazy Galicians", remains in place. This tactic was deliberately employed by the Yanukovych administration is promoting a strategy of regional divide-and-rule through polarisation, using 9 May–style provocations, to maintain its eastern Ukrainian electorate permanently mobilised.

Analysts have stated that as of February 2014, Russia was able to:

Control and manipulate the price of gas shipments to Ukraine's disadvantage (in the past few years, it had twice turned off the flow of gas to the country to force the hands of Ukrainian leaders);

Arbitrarily impose trade restrictions on Ukrainian exports;

Flood Ukraine with television propaganda highlighting alleged Western interference in Ukraine's internal affairs;

Stir up secessionist sentiment in Russian-speaking areas such as Crimea and Donetsk.

The Ukrainian state has also alleged infiltration of its security services by Russian state operatives in the lead-up to the events of 2014.

According to the Institute of Modern Russia, the Kremlin also maintained a tight hold on Ukraine's president, Viktor Yanukovych.

Ukrainian revolution

In November 2013, the 'Euromaidan' protests began in response to Yanukovych's sudden decision to abandon a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union (EU), instead choosing closer ties to Russia. Earlier that year, Ukraine's parliament had overwhelmingly approved finalising the agreement with the EU. Russia had put pressure on Ukraine to reject it. The scope of the protests widened, with calls for Yanukovych's resignation. Protesters opposed what they saw as government corruption and abuse of power, oligarchic sway, police brutality and human rights violations. On 28 January 2014, Ukraine's government resigned. The protests climaxed on 18–20 February 2014 with clashes in Kyiv between protesters and Berkut special riot police, in which 108 protesters were killed; most of them were shot by snipers. On 21 February, President Yanukovych and the opposition signed an agreement to bring about an interim unity government, early elections, and urgent constitutional changes (which needed to be signed by the president). However, Yanukovych secretly fled the city that evening. The next day, parliament voted to remove him from office. About 73% of the parliament and members of all parties voted to remove him, including members of his own party. On 27 February, an interim government was established and early presidential elections were scheduled. This series of events became known as the Revolution of Dignity.

Immediately following the revolution, unmarked Russian troops occupied the Ukrainian territory of Crimea. After an illegal referendum, Crimea was annexed by Russia.

Protests in the Donbas

Following the revolution, counter-revolutionary and pro-Russian protests began in parts of the Donbas. In the last census, the population of the Donbas was about 58% ethnic Ukrainian and 38% ethnic Russian overall: Donetsk Oblast was 57% Ukrainian and 38% Russian, while Luhansk Oblast was 58% Ukrainian and 39% Russian. A national survey held in March–April 2014 found that 58% of respondents in the Donbas wanted autonomy within Ukraine and 31% wanted secession.

The Donbas was the region most strongly supportive of Yanukovych and his Party of Regions. People in the Donbas mostly consumed Russian-based media, which portrayed Ukraine's new interim government as an illegitimate "fascist junta" and that ethnic Russians were in imminent danger. Leaked e-mails and telephone calls later revealed that the Russian state had funded and organized separatists, mainly through Kremlin advisers Vladislav Surkov and Sergey Glazyev.

Pro-Russian protesters occupied the Donetsk Regional State Administration Building from 1 to 6 March 2014, until the SBU removed them. Pavel Gubarev was proclaimed "people's governor" of Donetsk Oblast and Aleksandr Kharitonov "people's governor" of Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian authorities arrested local separatist leaders in early March. They were replaced by figures linked to the Russian security services. Political scientist Taras Kuzio wrote that Russia transformed the protesters "into armed insurgents; this was never an organic process".

On 6 April, 1,000–2,000 demonstrators in Donetsk demanded a referendum on autonomy or accession to Russia, similar to the one held in Crimea in March. Hundreds of masked men seized weapons from the SBU building in the city, and a large crowd stormed and occupied the Donetsk RSA building, raising the Russian flag. They demanded the regional council vote for a referendum on joining Russia the next day, vowing to otherwise take control of the regional government with a "people's mandate", dismissing all elected regional councillors and members of parliament. As these demands were not met, the following day the activists proclaimed the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) as an independent state.

Unrest also began in Luhansk on 6 April, when hundreds of protesters besieged the SBU headquarters for six hours, demanding the release of anti-government militants held there. They eventually stormed and occupied the building, releasing prisoners and seizing weapons.

First phase of the war (2014)

While the initial protests were largely native expressions of discontent with the new Ukrainian government, Russia took advantage of them to launch a coordinated political and military campaign against Ukraine. Russian citizens led the separatist movement in Donetsk from April 2014, and were supported by volunteers and materiel from Russia. As the conflict escalated in May 2014, Russia employed a "hybrid approach", deploying a combination of disinformation, irregular fighters, regular Russian troops, and conventional military support to destabilise the Donbas.

Militants seize towns

Between 12 and 14 April 2014, Russian militants took control of government buildings in several towns and cities in Donetsk oblast, including Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Horlivka, Mariupol, Yenakiieve, Makiivka and Zhdanivka.

On 12 April 2014, a heavily-armed Russian paramilitary unit crossed the border from Russia into Ukraine and seized the strategic town of Sloviansk. They attacked and occupied the town's administration building, police station, and SBU building, seized weapons, and set up roadblocks with the help of local armed activists. The militants wore no insignia and had been sent from occupied Crimea via Russia. The unit was made up of fifty Russian Armed Forces volunteers, commanded by former GRU colonel Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin, a right-wing Russian nationalist associated with the neo-imperialist movement. In an interview for Russian ultranationalist newspaper Zavtra, he said that this action sparked the war in eastern Ukraine:"I'm the one who pulled the trigger of this war. If our unit hadn't crossed the border, everything would have fizzled out, like in Kharkiv or Odesa".

Girkin explained that "nobody there wanted to fight" until his unit seized Sloviansk.

Pro-Russian militants unlawfully detained journalists (including American Simon Ostrovsky), local civilians, and the elected mayor, Nelya Shtepa. On 25 April, they kidnapped eight OSCE observers and held them captive, claiming they were "NATO spies". The militants also carried out several summary executions. Girkin later took responsibility for these.

According to Serhiy Kudelia in Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia's War on Ukraine, "None of the local activists who organized the first anti-Kyiv protests in Sloviansk played any prominent role once Girkin seized the town". Although some joined the paramilitaries, they were commanded by outsiders; "separatist resistance in Sloviansk was thus fully subordinated to the interests of a small group of Russian citizens acting in coordination with their Moscow chiefs".

The same day as the capture of Sloviansk, Girkin's men attacked the police station in nearby Kramatorsk, resulting in a shootout. The fighters, claiming to be members of the Donbas People's Militia, later captured the police station. They removed the police station's sign and raised the flag of the Donetsk People's Republic over the building. They then issued an ultimatum that stated that if the city's mayor and administration did not swear allegiance to the Republic by the following Monday, they would remove them from office.

Beginning of government "Anti-Terrorist Operation"

The first conflict deaths in the Donbas occurred on 13 April, when the Russian paramilitaries who occupied Sloviansk fired on Ukrainian SBU officers on the city outskirts. Ukrainian Alpha Group captain Gennady Bilichenko was killed and several wounded, while at least one Russian militant was killed by return fire.

In response to the separatist takeover of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, attacks on government forces and police stations in the Donbas, and their refusal to surrender, Turchynov announced that Ukrainian forces would launch an "Anti-Terrorist Operation" on 15 April. However, Ukrainian forces were poorly prepared, and the operation soon stalled. Russian paramilitary commander Igor Strelkov said that Ukrainian forces were "extremely cautious" at first, as Russian troops were massed on Ukraine's border and the Ukrainians were unsure how Russia would respond.

As part of this counter-offensive, in the Battle of Kramatorsk, Ukrainian special forces re-took Kramatorsk Airfield on 15 April, after a skirmish with the Donbas People's Militia. Ukrainian officials and Russian media said at least four rebels were killed and several captured. Outside the airfield, angry protesters surrounded Ukrainian unit commander Lt. Gen. Vasyl Krutov and demanded to know why troops had "fired on locals". Krutov said the unrest was being led by Russian forces and "We need to destroy this foreign invader".

On 16 April, Ukraine's 25th Airborne Brigade entered Kramatorsk in columns of BMD-2 infantry fighting vehicles. They were blocked by crowds of civilians "with members of a Russian diversionary-terrorist group among them", according to Ukraine's defense ministry. One of the columns was surrounded and disarmed, and their six armored vehicles were captured by Russian paramilitaries, who drove them to Sloviansk. The same day, a large crowd backed by Russian paramilitaries halted another Ukrainian armored column in Pchyolkino, letting them go only after soldiers surrendered their rifle magazines. Because of this, Turchynov announced he would disband the brigade, although this was later cancelled.

In Mariupol on 17 April, three members of the Donbas People's Militia were killed, 11 wounded and 63 arrested after a failed assault on a Ukrainian National Guard base.

Re-launch of Ukrainian operation

Ukraine re-launched the stalled operation against pro-Russian paramilitaries on 22 April, after the body of local councillor Volodymyr Rybak was found dumped in a river near Sloviansk. He had been kidnapped on 17 April by pro-Russian militants after he tried to re-raise the Ukrainian flag over Horlivka city council building. The bodies of Maidan activists Yuri Popravko and Yuri Diakovskyi were also found in the river. All three had been kidnapped, tortured, mutilated and killed by pro-Russian militants. They were the first civilians killed by pro-Russian forces in the Donbas war. Turchynov said that "the terrorists who effectively took the whole Donetsk Oblast hostage have now gone too far". Pro-Russian militants kidnapped more than two dozen people, including journalists such as Simon Ostrovsky. On 22 April, the offices of a newspaper in Kostiantynivka were burnt down, after receiving threats for criticizing the militants.

On 21 April, demonstrators gathered for a "people's assembly" outside the SBU building in Luhansk and called for a "people's government", demanding either federalisation or joining Russia. At this assembly, they elected Valery Bolotov as "People's Governor". Two referendums were announced, one to be held on 11 May to determine whether Luhansk region should seek greater autonomy, and another scheduled for 18 May to determine whether the region should join Russia, or declare independence.

The Internal Affairs Ministry reported that the city of Sviatohirsk, near Sloviansk, was retaken by Ukrainian troops on 23 April. In addition, the Defence Ministry said it had taken control over all points of strategic importance in the area around Kramatorsk.

On 24 April 70 to 100 insurgents armed with assault rifles and rocket launchers attacked an armoury in Artemivsk. The depot housed around 30 tanks. Ukrainian troops attempted to fight off the insurgents, but were forced to retreat after many men were wounded by insurgent fire. Some 30 militants seized the police headquarters in Konstantinovka on 28 April.

On 24 April, Avakov said that Ukrainian troops had captured the city administration in Mariupol, after a clash with pro-Russian demonstrators there. Despite this, a report by the BBC said that whilst it appeared that Ukrainian troops and the mayor of Mariupol did enter the building in the early morning, Ukrainian troops had abandoned it by the afternoon. Local pro-Russian activists blamed Ukrainian nationalists for the attack upon the building but said that the DPR had regained control. A representative of the Republic, Irina Voropoyeva, said, "We, the Donetsk People's Republic, still control the building. There was an attempted provocation but now it's over."

May 2014: post-referendum fighting

It was reported on 12 May that, following the local autonomy referendum, the Donbas People's Militia leader Igor Girkin declared himself "Supreme Commander" of the Donetsk People's Republic. In his decree, he demanded that all military stationed in the region swear an oath of allegiance to him within 48 hours, and said that all remaining Ukrainian military in the region would be "destroyed on the spot". He then petitioned the Russian Federation for military support to protect against "the threat of intervention by NATO" and "genocide". Pavel Gubarev, president of Donetsk People's Republic, instituted martial law on 15 May, and vowed for "total annihilation" of Ukrainian forces if they did not pull out of the Donbas by 21:00. Similarly, the president of the Luhansk People's Republic, Valery Bolotov, declared martial law on 22 May.

The Donetsk-based steel magnate Rinat Akhmetov called on his 300,000 employees within the Donetsk region to "rally against separatists" on 20 May. Sirens sounded at noon at his factories to signal the beginning of the rally. A so-called "Peace March" was held in the Donbas Arena in Donetsk city, accompanied by cars sounding their horns at noon. BBC News and Ukrainska Pravda reported that some vehicles were attacked by separatists, and that gunmen had warned the offices of several city taxi services not to take part. On 16 May, Metinvest steelworkers, along with local police and security forces, routed the insurgents from the city administration and other occupied government buildings in the city. Most insurgents left the city, but some could still be seen outside the burnt city administration building.

On 22 May 18 Ukrainian soldiers were killed during an insurgent attack upon an army checkpoint near the city of Volnovakha. Three armoured personnel carriers and several lorries were destroyed in the attack, whilst one insurgent was killed. The same day, a convoy consisting of 100 soldiers attempted to cross a bridge at Rubizhne, Luhansk Oblast, and advance into insurgent-held territory. They were ambushed by a group of between 300 and 500 insurgents. After fighting that lasted throughout the day, the soldiers were forced to retreat. Between two and fourteen soldiers and between seven and twenty insurgents were killed during the fighting. Three army infantry combat vehicles and one lorry were destroyed, and another three armoured vehicles were captured by the insurgents. The Internal Affairs Ministry stated that some insurgents had attempted to enter Luhansk Oblast from Russia, but had been repelled by border guards.

Escalation in May and June 2014

On the morning of 26 May 200 pro-Russian insurgents, including members of the Vostok Battalion, captured the main terminal of the Donetsk International Airport, erected roadblocks around it, and demanded that government forces withdraw. The Ukrainian National Guard issued an ultimatum to the separatists, asking them to surrender. This was rejected. Government forces then launched an assault on separatist positions at the airport with paratroopers and airstrikes. Attack helicopters were used by government forces. They targeted a separatist-operated anti-aircraft gun.

An estimated 40 insurgents died in the fighting, with some civilians caught in the crossfire.

Between 15 and 35 insurgents were killed in a single friendly-fire incident, when two lorries carrying wounded fighters away from the airport were ambushed by insurgents mistaking them for Ukrainian forces.

During the fighting at the airport, Druzhba Arena in Donetsk city was ransacked by pro-Russian insurgents, who looted the building and destroyed surveillance equipment, and set it ablaze. Concurrently, Donetsk police said the insurgents had killed two policemen in the nearby town of Horlivka. The Moscow Times reported that the two men had been executed for "breaking their oath to the Donetsk People's Republic".

Mykhailo Koval, the Minister of Defence, said on 30 May that Ukrainian government forces had "completely cleared" the insurgents from the southern and western parts of Donetsk Oblast and the northern part of Luhansk Oblast. Meanwhile, an internal coup replaced the leadership of the Donetsk People's Republic, and some bodies of Russian fighters killed in the airport battle were repatriated to Russia.

Two separatists were killed in a skirmish with Ukrainian border guards on 31 May. Two days later, five separatists were killed when 500 separatists attacked a border post in Luhansk Oblast. Eleven border guards and eight separatists were wounded during the fighting, which also killed one civilian.

On 2 June, eight people were killed and more than 20 wounded by a series of explosions hitting the occupied RSA building in Luhansk city. Separatists blamed the incident on a government airstrike, while Ukrainian officials denied this, and claimed that the explosions were caused by a stray surface-to-air missile fired by insurgents. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) published a report the next day, stating that based on "limited observation", they believed that the explosion was caused by an airstrike, supporting separatist claims.

July 2014: post-ceasefire government offensive

After a week-long ceasefire unilaterally declared by Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko ended, the Armed Forces renewed their operations against the insurgents on 1 July. Shelling occurred in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and government forces retook a border crossing in Dolzhansk, one of the three major border crossings occupied by the separatists. Government forces also recaptured the villages of Brusivka and Stary Karavan. The same day, insurgents in Luhansk said that they had taken control of Luhansk International Airport. On 1 July 2014 in Donetsk a street gunfight broke between rival factions of pro-Russian militants, which resulted in one person being fatally wounded and two others in critical conditions.

Internal Affairs Ministry spokesman Zoryan Shkyriakuk said that over 1,000 pro-Russian insurgents were killed in the first day following the resumption of hostilities. Liga.net, citing a source involved with the government military operation, reported that over 400 insurgents were killed in action, but that the higher figures reported earlier could not be confirmed. Separatists themselves reported only two deaths in fighting at Mykolaivka.

Insurgents attacked a border post in Novoazovsk on 2 July. During the attack, mortars were fired upon the post, and clashes broke out. One border guard was killed in the fighting, and another eight guardsmen were injured. Government forces recaptured the town of Mykolaivka, near Sloviansk, on 4 July. A group of DPR-affiliated militants defected as a result, and joined the Ukrainian army.

In a further blow to the insurgents, government forces retook the stronghold of Sloviansk on 5 July. Commander of the DPR insurgents, Igor Girkin, took the decision "due to the overwhelming numerical superiority of the enemy", according to DPR prime minister Alexander Borodai. He said that DPR forces had retreated to Kramatorsk, but BBC News reported that they were seen abandoning their checkpoints in Kramatorsk. Later that day, Borodai confirmed that the insurgents had abandoned "the entire northern sector", including Kramatorsk, and had retreated to Donetsk city. After the retreat of Girkin's forces to Donetsk, he assumed control of the DPR, replacing the previous authorities there in what was described as a "coup d'état".

Subsequently, Ukraine's Armed Forces recaptured Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Artemivsk. Amidst the insurgent retreat, Donetsk city mayor Oleksandr Lukyanchenko said that at least 30,000 people had left the city since April.

Fighting worsens in eastern Donetsk Oblast

After a brief lull following the insurgent withdrawal from the northern part of Donetsk Oblast, fighting continued to escalate sharply in the eastern parts of Donetsk Oblast. Shells landed on the border town of Donetsk in Rostov Oblast, a part of Russia, on 13 July. One civilian was killed in the shelling. Russian officials blamed the Armed Forces of Ukraine, whilst Ukraine denied responsibility and accused insurgents in the Donbas of having staged a false flag attack. Russia said it was considering launching airstrikes against Ukrainian government targets as retaliation.

Ukrainian forces ended an insurgent blockade of Luhansk International Airport on 14 July. LPR officials acknowledged that they lost 30 men during fighting in the village of Oleksandrivka. The insurgent-occupied town of Snizhne was hit by rockets fired from an aeroplane on 15 July, leaving at least 11 people dead, and destroying multiple homes. The insurgents blamed the Air Force of Ukraine, but the Ukrainian government denied any involvement.

Clashes broke out between Ukrainian and pro-Russian forces along the border with Russia in Shakhtarsk Raion on 16 July. Insurgents who had been holed up in the town of Stepanivka made an attempt to escape encirclement by government forces at 05:00. According to a report by the National Guard, a roadblock near the border village of Marynivka was attacked by the insurgents with tanks, mortar fire, and anti-tank missiles. The checkpoint was shelled for over an hour, causing significant damage to infrastructure in Marynivka. Guardsmen repelled the attack, and forced the insurgents back to Stepanivka, where fighting continued. The battle then moved to the nearby village of Tarany. At least 11 Ukrainian soldiers died in the fighting. Attempts to form a "contact group" between the insurgents and the Ukrainian government, part of President Poroshenko's "15-point peace plan", failed, leaving little hope of a renewed ceasefire. The insurgents later said that they retook Marynivka.

Downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17

On 17 July 2014, DPR forces shot down a civilian passenger jet, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Hrabove (a village in the Donetsk Oblask), killing all 298 people on board. This disaster followed two similar incidents earlier in the week, when two Ukrainian Air Force planes were shot down.

DPR-affiliated insurgents blamed the Ukrainian government for the disaster, whereas the government, Netherlands, and Australia blamed Russia and the insurgents. The responsibility for investigation was delegated to the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) and the Dutch-led joint investigation team (JIT), who concluded that the airliner was downed by a Buk surface-to-air missile launched from pro-Russian separatist-controlled territory in Ukraine. According to the JIT, the Buk that was used originated from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the Russian Federation, and had been transported from Russia on the day of the crash, fired from a field in a separatist-controlled area, and the launcher returned to Russia after it was used to shoot down MH17.

On the basis of the JIT's conclusions, the governments of the Netherlands and Australia held Russia responsible for the deployment of the Buk installation and took steps to hold Russia formally accountable.

Government push into Donetsk and Luhansk cities

On 18 July, at least 20 civilians were killed by shelling of Luhansk city, according to a statement by the separatist-controlled city administration. It said that a barrage of rockets hit "virtually every district". The shelling forced OSCE monitors to flee from their office in Luhansk, and move to Starobilsk. Shelling damaged an electrical substation in the city's Kamennobrodskiy district, causing blackouts. An oil refinery in Lysychansk was also set alight. Ukrainian forces went on to capture the south-eastern section of Luhansk city. Another 16 people were killed overnight, and at least 60 were wounded. According to a government report, Luhansk airport was secured by Ukrainian forces amidst the battle.

Heavy fighting also resumed around Donetsk airport on 18 July, and explosions were heard in all districts of the city. By 21 July, heavy fighting in Donetsk resumed; the city was rocked by explosions and artillery fire. Fighting was concentrated in the northwestern districts of Kyivskyi and Kuibyshevskyi, and also near the central railway station and airport, leading local residents to seek refuge in bomb shelters, or to flee the city. The city's water supply was cut off during the fighting, and all railway and bus service was stopped. The streets emptied, and insurgents erected barricades across the city to control traffic.

The cities of Dzerzhynsk, Soledar, and Rubizhne were retaken by Ukrainian forces on 21 July. The suburb of Mayorsk, just outside Horlivka, and the city of Sievierodonetsk, in Luhansk Oblast, were recaptured by Ukraine on 22 July. The Ukrainian paramilitary Donbas Battalion captured Popasna. OSCE monitors visiting Donetsk following the previous day's fighting there said that the city was "practically deserted", and that the fighting had stopped. The same day, DPR prime minister Alexander Borodai said that he wanted to resume ceasefire talks. DPR commander Igor Girkin also said "The time has come when Russia must take a final decision – to really support Donbas's Russians or abandon them forever". Also,

After having retaken Sievierodonetsk, government forces fought insurgents around the neighbouring city of Lysychansk. An insurgent car bomb killed three soldiers during the fighting there. Grad rocket attacks were launched against government forces garrisoned at Vesela Hora, Kamysheve, and also Luhansk airport. The press centre for the government military operation said that situation remained "most complex" in the areas around "Donetsk city, Luhansk city, Krasnodon and Popasna".

Russian invasions and first Minsk agreement (2014–2015)

August 2014 invasion by Russian forces

On 14 August, a convoy of some two dozen armoured personnel carriers and other vehicles with official Russian military plates crossed into Ukraine near the insurgent-controlled Izvaryne border crossing. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen confirmed that a "Russian incursion" into Ukraine had occurred. Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko said that Ukrainian artillery engaged and destroyed a "significant" portion of the armoured column. The Russian Defence Ministry denied the existence of any such convoy. Following this incident, the newly appointed prime minister of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko said that his forces included 1,200 Russian-trained combatants.

A Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 fighter jet was shot down by the insurgents in Luhansk Oblast on 17 August. Ten civilians were killed during continued shelling in Donetsk. The insurgent-occupied city of Horlivka was encircled by the Armed Forces on 18 August. Government forces also advanced into the edges of Luhansk city. A convoy of refugees from Luhansk was hit by Grad rockets near the village of Novosvitlivka. Dozens of civilians died in the attack, which the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine blamed on the insurgents. Insurgents denied attacking any refugee convoys. DPR prime minister Aleksandr Zakharchenko stated that if the Ukrainian government made "reasonable proposals to lay down arms, close borders, we will talk on equal terms as equal partners". He added, however, that the government "must recognise us as a state, now it is already impossible to ask for a certain degree of autonomy".

After having edged into Luhansk city on 18 August, government forces began to advance through the city "block by block" on 19 August. Fighting was heard in streets across the city, and shelling of many insurgent-occupied districts continued. There was also fighting Makiivka and Ilovaisk, two cities just outside Donetsk city. A spokesman for the Internal Affairs Ministry said that government forces were "clearing" Ilovaisk of insurgents, and later captured most of the city. The headquarters of the DPR in Donetsk city were also shelled. Fighting across Donetsk Oblast on 19 August resulted in the deaths of 34 civilians. By early evening on 20 August, government forces said that they had recaptured "significant parts" of the city of Luhansk, after a series of running battles in streets throughout the day.

On 23 August heavily armed men, believed to be Russian troops, erected a roadblock southwest of Amvrosiivka, in the vicinity of Kolosky, approximately 10 kilometers from the border. The next day, Ukrainian media reported that Russian army armoured forces equipped with 250 vehicles and artillery had entered Amvrosiivka, in what seemed to be the beginning of a major offensive on Mariupol.

September 2014 Minsk ceasefire agreement

After days of peace talks in Minsk under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Ukraine, Russia, the DPR, and the LPR agreed to a ceasefire on 5 September.

In the Minsk Protocol, all sides agreed: an immediate ceasefire, monitored by the OSCE; immediate release of all prisoners; withdrawal of all illegal armed groups, foreign soldiers and mercenaries from Ukraine; withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the frontline; local elections in the Donbas under Ukrainian law; the granting of self-governance ("special status") to rebel-held parts of the Donbas; OSCE monitoring of the Russian-Ukrainian state border; and an amnesty for those involved in the war. Humanitarian corridors were meant to be maintained so that civilians could leave affected areas. Use of the Russian language in the Donbas would be protected by law.

According to The New York Times, the agreement was an "almost verbatim" replication of Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko's failed June "15-point peace plan". Russia started a more robust train and equip operation to strengthen separatists forces. DPR and LPR leaders said that they retained their desire for full independence from Ukraine, despite these concessions. Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian president Poroshenko discussed the ceasefire on 6 September. Both parties said that they were satisfied with the ceasefire, and that it was generally holding.

The ceasefire was broken multiple times on the night of 6–7 September, and into the day on 7 September. These violations resulted in the deaths of four Ukrainian soldiers, whilst 29 were injured. Heavy shelling by the insurgents was reported on the eastern outskirts of Mariupol, and OSCE monitors said that the Ukrainian government had fired rockets from Donetsk International Airport. The OSCE said that these breaches of the agreement would not cause the ceasefire to collapse. Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko said on 10 September that "70% of Russian troops have been moved back across the border", and also added that this action gave him "hope that the peace initiatives have good prospects".

Ceasefire violations continued, however. In line with the Minsk Protocol, OSCE monitors said that they observed a prisoner exchange near Avdiivka on 12 September. OSCE monitors documented violations of the Minsk Protocol in numerous areas of Donetsk Oblast from 13 to 15 September. Two of the armoured vehicles that the monitors were travelling in were struck by shrapnel, rendering one of the vehicles inoperable and forcing the monitors to retreat.

November 2014 separatist elections and aftermath

In line with the Minsk agreement, on 16 September 2014, Ukraine's parliament passed a law that would grant limited self-rule to the rebel-held territory, amnesty for combatants, and scheduled elections there for 7 December.

However, the separatists then announced their own elections in November. The OSCE chairman Didier Burkhalter said this violated the Minsk agreement and would "further complicate its implementation". The elections were not agreed to by all sides, would not involve Ukrainian parties and candidates, would not be observed by the OSCE, and would be held while Russian-backed militants controlled the region. Russia said it "respected" the vote, treating the new authorities as representing the "people of Donbas" in future negotiations.

In response to the unlawful elections, Ukrainian president Poroshenko asked parliament to revoke the "special status" granted to rebel-held areas. DPR deputy prime minister Andrei Purgin then said that Ukrainian forces had launched "all-out war" against the DPR and LPR on 6 November. Ukrainian officials denied this. Concurrently, separatist representatives requested a re-drafting of the Minsk Protocol. Intermittent shelling of Donetsk renewed on 5 November.

OSCE monitors reported on 8 November that there were large movements of unmarked heavy equipment in separatist-held territory. These included armoured personnel carriers, lorries, petrol tankers, and tanks, which were being manned and escorted by men in dark green uniforms without insignias. Ukrainian government spokesmen said that these were Russian troops, but this could not be independently verified. Overnight into 9 November, intense shelling from both government and insurgent positions rocked Donetsk. OSCE chairman Didier Burkhalter said that he was "very concerned" about the "resurgence of violence". OSCE monitors observed more munitions convoys in separatist-held territory on 9 November. These included 17 unmarked green ZiL lorries loaded with ammunition at Sverdlovsk, and 17 similar Kamaz lorries towing howitzers at Zuhres. Another convoy of 43 green military lories, some towing howitzers and rocket launchers, was observed by OSCE monitors in Donetsk on 11 November.

Following the reports of these troop and equipment movements, NATO General Philip Breedlove said on 12 November that Russian troops and heavy equipment had crossed into Ukraine during the preceding week. In response, the Ukrainian Defence Ministry said that it was preparing for a renewed offensive by pro-Russian forces. Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said "there was and is no evidence" to support NATO's statement.

Escalation in January 2015

OSCE monitors reported a "rise in tensions" following New Year's Day. Numerous ceasefire violations were recorded, with most occurring near Donetsk International Airport. Infighting amongst insurgent groups broke out in Luhansk Oblast. In one incident, LPR militants said that they had killed Alexander Bednov, the leader of the pro-Russian "Batman Battalion", on 2 January 2015. LPR officials said that Bednov had been running an "illegal prison", and that he had engaged in torturing prisoners. In another incident, the leader of an Antratsyt-based Don Cossack militant group, Nikolai Kozitsyn, said that the territory controlled by his group, claimed by the Luhansk People's Republic, had become part of the "Russian empire", and that Russian president Vladimir Putin was its "emperor".

An intercity bus stopped at a government checkpoint in Buhas was hit by a Grad rocket on 13 January, killing 12 civilians (see Volnovakha bus attack). Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko declared a day of national mourning.

The new terminal building at Donetsk International Airport, which had been a site of fighting between Ukrainian and separatist troops since May 2014, was captured by the DPR forces on 15 January. In the days prior to the capturing, the airport was heavily barraged by separatist rocket fire. DPR leader Alexander Zakharchenko stated that the capture of the airport was the first step toward regaining territory lost to Ukrainian forces during the middle of 2014. He said "Let our countrymen hear this: We will not just give up our land. We will either take it back peacefully, or like that", referring to the capture of the airport.

Such an offensive by separatist forces would signal the complete breakdown of the ceasefire. Ukrainian forces said that there had been "no order to retreat" from the airport, and DPR parliament chairman Andrey Purgin said that while DPR forces had gained control of the terminal buildings, fighting was ongoing because "the Ukrainians have lots of places to hide". Concurrently, a new round of Minsk talks, scheduled for 16 January by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, was called off after DPR and LPR leaders Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky refused to attend.

A government military operation at the weekend of 17–18 January resulted in Ukrainian forces recapturing most of Donetsk International Airport. According to Ukrainian NSDC representative Andriy Lysenko, the operation restored the lines of control established by the Minsk Protocol, and therefore did not constitute a violation of it. The operation caused fighting to move toward Donetsk proper, resulting in heavy shelling of residential areas of the city that border the airport. DPR authorities said that they halted government forces at Putylivskiy bridge, which connects the airport and the city proper. The bridge, which is strategically important, was destroyed during the fighting. OSCE monitors reported that shelling had caused heavy damage in the Donetsk residential districts of Kyivskyi, Kirovskyi, Petrovskyi, and Voroshilovskyi.

Static war (2015–2022)

Minsk II ceasefire and denouement

The scheduled summit at Minsk on 11 February 2015 resulted in the signing of a new package of peacemaking measures, called Minsk II, on 12 February. The plan, similar in content to the failed Minsk Protocol, called for an unconditional ceasefire, to begin on 15 February, amongst many other measures. Despite the signing of Minsk II, fighting continued around Debaltseve. DPR forces said that ceasefire did not apply to Debaltseve, and continued their offensive. Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw from the Debaltseve area on 18 February, leaving separatist forces in control of it.

In the week after the fall of Debaltseve to pro-Russian forces, fighting in the conflict zone abated. DPR and LPR forces began to withdraw artillery from the front lines as specified by Minsk II on 24 February, and Ukraine did so on 26 February. Ukraine reported that it had suffered no casualties during 24–26 February, something that had not occurred since early January 2015.

Minor skirmishes continued into March, but the ceasefire was largely observed across the combat zone. Ukrainian and separatist forces had withdrawn most of the heavy weaponry specified in Minsk II by 10 March. Minor violations of the ceasefire continued throughout March and into April, though it continued to hold, and the numbers of casualties reported by both sides were greatly reduced.

Fighting flared up on 3 June 2015, when DPR insurgents launched an attack on government-controlled Marinka. Artillery and tanks were utilised in the battle there, which was described as the heaviest fighting since the signing of Minsk II.

An anti-war protest took place in Donetsk city on 15 June. The protest, the first of its kind in pro-Russian separatist-controlled territory, called for an end to the fighting in the Donbas. About 500 people, who had gathered outside the RSA building, shouted, "Stop the war!", "Give us back our houses, our homes are broken!", and "Get out of here!" Specifically, protesters demanded that the separatists cease firing rocket attacks from residential areas on the outskirts of Donetsk.

Whilst all parties to the conflict continued to support implementation of the measures specified by Minsk II, minor skirmishes continued on a daily basis through June and July 2015. Ukrainian troops suffered losses on a daily basis, and the ceasefire was labelled "unworkable" and "impossible to implement". Despite constant fighting and shelling along the line of contact, no territorial changes occurred. This state of stalemate led the war to be labelled a "frozen conflict".

January 2017 eruption of heavy fighting and failed ceasefires

There was another outbreak of heavy fighting starting on 29 January 2017, centred on the Ukrainian-controlled city of Avdiivka. In 2017, on average a Ukrainian soldier died every three days, with an estimated 40,000 separatist and 6,000 Russian troops in the region.

On 18 February 2017, Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree whereby the Russian authorities would recognise personal and vehicle-registration documents issued by the DPR and LPR. The presidential decree referred to "permanent residents of certain areas of Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", without any mention of the self-proclaimed People's Republics. Ukrainian authorities decried the decree as being directly contradictory to the Minsk II agreement and that it "legally recognised the quasi-state terrorist groups which cover Russia's occupation of part of Donbas". Secretary General of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Lamberto Zannier stated on 19 February the decree "implies...recognition of those who issue the documents, of course" and that it would make it more difficult to hold a ceasefire.

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, after meeting with his Ukrainian, German and French counterparts in Munich on 18 February, said that a ceasefire between Ukraine and the separatists had been agreed effective from 20 February 2017. But according to a Ukrainian Armed Forces spokesman on 20 February 2017 separatists attacks continued, although he did state there was a "significant reduction in military activity". On 21 February OSCE's Secretary General Zannier stated there were still a significant number of violations of the cease-fire and "no evidence of the withdrawal of weapons".

According to both parties to the conflict, the fourth truce attempt of 2017 collapsed within a few hours on 24 June 2017. A "back to school ceasefire" to begin on 25 August 2017 also immediately collapsed. A further "Christmas ceasefire" on 23 December 2017 was immediately broken.). On 27 December 2017, as part of the Minsk deal, a prisoner swap was conducted with 73 Ukrainian soldiers exchanged for over 200 separatists.

On 18 January 2018, the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill to regain control over separatist-held areas. The Russian government denounced the bill, calling it "preparations for a new war", and accused the Ukrainian government of violating the Minsk agreement. The law on the reintegration of Donbas labeled the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as "temporarily-occupied territories", while Russia was labeled as an "aggressor". The legislation granted President Poroshenko "the right to use military force inside the country, without consent from the Ukrainian parliament", which would include the reclaiming of Donbas. The bill supports a ban on trade and a transport blockade of the east that has been in place since 2017. Under the legislation, the only separatist-issued documents that Ukraine would recognise are birth and death certificates.

October 2019 Steinmeier formula agreement and July 2020 ceasefire

A March 2019 survey of public opinion by the Centre for East European and International Studies in DPR/LPR-controlled Donbas found that 55% favoured reintegration with Ukraine, and 45% preferred integration into Russia. 58% of all respondents supported special status either within Ukraine or Russia for the region.

Ukraine, Russia, the DPR, LPR, and the OSCE signed an agreement on 1 October 2019 to try to end the conflict. Called the "Steinmeier formula", after its proposer, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, it was a simplified version of the Minsk agreements. The plan called for holding elections, under Ukrainian law, in the rebel-held territory. If the OSCE deemed the elections free and fair, the territory would be re-integrated into Ukraine with "special status". Russia demanded the agreement's signing before any continuation of the "Normandy format" peace talks. In line with the agreement, Ukrainian and pro-Russian forces agreed to pull back from three parts of the frontline: at Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote and Petrivske.

Ukraine's new president Volodomyr Zelenskyy faced criticism from Ukrainian media, civil society, war veterans and nationalists. Critics argued that the Steinmeier plan would legalize the occupation of the Donbas and leave it as "a deadly Trojan horse under Russian control". The main issues were holding elections in Donbas while it and the border were still controlled by Russian forces. In these conditions, it was argued that elections were unlikely to be free and fair, and it would be impossible to ensure Russia kept its end of the agreement. The separatists had long driven most pro-Ukrainian residents out of the region to ensure a pro-Russia majority.

The leaders of the Donbas separatists, Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik, stated: "It will be we who decide ... how our people's militia will be defending our citizens, and how we will be integrated into Russia. ... Kyiv authorities will not get any sort of control over the border".

Zelenskyy responded that he would not allow elections "at gunpoint". He said there must first be a ceasefire, return of prisoners, withdrawal of Russian forces, Ukrainian control of its border, participation of Ukrainian parties and candidates, and the right of all those who fled the conflict to return to vote.

2021–2022 escalation

During 2021, there was an uptick in ceasefire breaches and attacks by Russian-backed forces in the Donbas. OSCE observers reported more than 90,000 ceasefire violations throughout 2021; the vast majority in Russian-controlled territory.

According to Ukrainian authorities, 25 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the first three months of 2021, compared to 50 killed in all of 2020. According to the Ombudsman of the DPR, 85 of its fighters and 30 civilians were killed in January–October 2021.

In late March–early April 2021, the Russian military moved large quantities of arms and equipment into occupied Crimea and the Voronezh and Rostov oblasts of Russia. A Janes intelligence specialist called it the largest unannounced military movement since the 2014 invasion of Crimea. On 10 April, Russian state news agency TASS reported that fifty of its battalion tactical groups consisting of 15,000 soldiers were massed for drills in the Southern Military District, which includes occupied Crimea and also borders the Donbas conflict zone. The head of the Ukrainian border guard estimated that 85,000 Russian soldiers were already in Crimea or within 40 kilometres (25 mi) of the Ukrainian border.

A Russian government spokesman said that the Russian military movements posed no threat, but Russian official Dmitry Kozak warned that Russian forces could act to "defend" Russian citizens in Ukraine, and any escalation of the Donbas conflict would mean "the beginning of the end of Ukraine" – "not a shot in the leg, but in the face". By this time, some half a million people in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic had been issued Russian passports since fighting broke out in 2014. Russia refused to participate when Ukraine requested a Vienna Document meeting with France, Germany, and the OSCE.

In April 2021, Ukraine performed the first operational rollout of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 military drones in the region. In November, a Bayraktar drone on the Ukrainian-government-controlled side of the line of contact was used to destroy a separatist artillery piece on the other side, which was conducting a strike that levelled homes and wounded and killed Ukrainian soldiers. The use of Ukrainian and Russian drones was criticised by France and Germany, while the United States pointed out that the Russia-led side has repeatedly violated agreements by the use of drones and howitzer artillery.

2022 full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine

On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a new, full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The DPR and LPR joined the offensive; the separatists stated that an operation to capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast had begun. By 25 March 2022, Russian forces claimed control over 93 percent of Luhansk oblast and 54 percent of Donetsk oblast. Having encountered heavy resistance to its operations in other parts of Ukraine, Russia announced on the same day that it would shift its focus to the complete "liberation" of the Donbas, and launched a campaign that would last through much of mid-2022.

Combatants

List of combatants

Diverse forces of both foreign and domestic origin participated in the war in the Donbas.

Russian involvement

Russian involvement in the Donbas war took a variety of forms. The International Criminal Court judged that the war was both a national and international armed conflict involving Ukraine and Russia, and the European Court of Human Rights judged that Russia controlled the rebels from 2014 onward. Only Russian intervention in August 2014 prevented a Ukrainian victory in the conflict.

Before the war, separatism in the Donbas had limited support, and there was little evidence of support for an armed uprising. The initial protests across southern and eastern Ukraine were largely native expressions of discontent with the new Ukrainian government and the emergence of the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk began as a small fringe group of the protesters, independent of Russian control. Russia took advantage of this, however, to launch a co-ordinated political and military campaign against Ukraine, as part of the broader Russo-Ukrainian War, including several information campaigns and sporadic cyber attacks that started before Yanukovych's ouster in February.

Russian president Vladimir Putin gave legitimacy to the separatist movement when he described the Donbas as part of the historical "New Russia" (Novorossiya), and said he did not understand how the region ever became part of Ukraine. When Ukrainian authorities cracked down on the pro-Russian protests and arrested local separatist leaders in early March, these were replaced by people with ties to the Russian security services and interests in Russian businesses, probably by order of Russian intelligence. By April 2014, Russians citizens had taken control of the separatist movement, and were supported by volunteers and materiel from Russia, including Chechen and Cossack militants. According to DPR insurgent commander Igor Girkin, without this support in April, the movement would have fizzled out.

As conflict between the separatists and the Ukrainian government escalated in May 2014, Russia began to employ a "hybrid approach", deploying a combination of disinformation tactics, irregular fighters, regular Russian troops, and conventional military support to support the separatists and destabilise the Donbas. The First Battle of Donetsk Airport in late May 2014 was the first battle between the separatists and the Ukrainian government that involved large amounts of Russian volunteers. According to the Ukrainian government, at the height of the conflict in the summer of 2014, Russian paramilitaries were reported to make up between 15% and 80% of the combatants. According to the RAND Corporation, "Russia has armed, trained, and led the separatist forces. But even by Kyiv's own estimates, the vast majority of rebel forces consist of locals—not soldiers of the regular Russian military".

Military aid to Ukraine

In December 2017, the United States provided Ukraine with lethal aid for the first time, in the form of Javelin antitank missiles. Initially, these were to be kept away from the front, but after a second delivery of similar weapon systems they were cleared for use anywhere. In September 2021, Kyiv commanded military forces drill in a common exercise with US and NATO partners. The use of Javelins on the front line was reported in November 2021.

Casualties

The first battle-related casualty during the war occurred on 13 April when armed men under the command of Igor Girkin ambushed Ukrainian special forces and killed one SBU officer. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, this casualty marked the dividing line between peace and armed conflict. The threshold to an armed conflict was crossed in the beginning of May when more than 25 people were killed since the beginning of the conflict. By mid-July to early August more than one thousand people died, the minimum threshold for classifying it as a war.

The estimated number of fatalities in the Donbas war was 14,200–14,400 by the end of December 2021, including non-combat military deaths. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, 6,500 were pro-Russian separatist forces, 4,400 were Ukrainian forces, and 3,404 were civilians. The vast majority of deaths were in the first two years of the war (2014 and 2015).

Civilians

According to the United Nations, 3,404 civilians were killed in the war and more than 7,000 were injured. The vast majority of civilian deaths were in the first two years of the war, while 365 civilians were killed in the six years from 2016 to 2021. In the year before Russia's full-scale invasion, 25 civilians were killed, over half of them from mines and unexploded ordnance.

Of the civilian deaths, at least 312 were foreigners: 298 passengers and crew of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, 11 Russian journalists, an Italian journalist, a Lithuanian diplomat, and one Russian civilian killed in cross-border shelling.

Of the 3,106 conflict-related civilian deaths, not counting the fatalities from the shoot down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17: 1,852 were men, 1,072 women, 102 boys, 50 girls and 30 adults whose sex is unknown.

Ukrainian forces

Ukraine reported that 4,535 of its servicemen had been killed by late February 2022, including 253 foreign-born Ukrainian citizens or foreigners. Another 70 Ukrainian soldiers were missing.

As of 21 June 2026, UALosses has confirmed the names of 6,597 Ukrainian soldiers killed during the War in Donbas.

Russian and separatist forces

The UN estimated 6,500 separatist militants were killed by the end of December 2021.

Ukraine claimed 7,577 separatists had been killed and 12,000 were missing by early 2015. They claimed an additional 103 Russian servicemen were killed between January and April 2016.

In late August 2015, according to a reported leak by a Russian news site, Business Life (Delovaya Zhizn), 2,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in Ukraine by February 2015. The US Department of State reported that 400–500 Russian soldiers had been killed by March 2015.

Consequences and humanitarian concerns

The United Nations observed in May 2014 an "alarming deterioration" in human rights in territory held by insurgents affiliated with the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. The UN reported growing lawlessness in the region, documenting cases of targeted killings, torture, and abduction, primarily carried out by the forces of the Donetsk People's Republic. The UN also reported threats against, attacks on, and abductions of journalists and international observers, as well as beatings and attacks on supporters of Ukrainian unity. Russia criticised these reports, and said that they were "politically motivated".

A report by Human Rights Watch in 2014 said "Anti-Kyiv forces in eastern Ukraine are abducting, attacking, and harassing people they suspect of supporting the Ukrainian government or consider undesirable...anti-Kyiv insurgents are using beatings and kidnappings to send the message that anyone who doesn't support them had better shut up or leave". There were also multiple instances of beatings, abductions, and possible executions of local residents by Ukrainian troops, such as Oleh Lyashko's militia and the Aidar territorial defence battalion. In August, Igor Druz, a senior advisor to pro-Russian insurgent commander Igor Girkin, said that "On several occasions, in a state of emergency, we have carried out executions by shooting to prevent chaos. As a result, our troops, the ones who have pulled out of Sloviansk, are highly disciplined".

After the first Minsk Protocol ceasefire, warlords took control of districts on the separatist side.

A report by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) released on 28 July 2014 said that at least 750 million US dollars' worth of damage has been done to property and infrastructure in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Human Rights Watch said that Ukrainian government forces, pro-government paramilitaries, and the insurgents had used unguided Grad rockets in attacks on civilian areas, stating that "The use of indiscriminate rockets in populated areas violates international humanitarian law, or the laws of war, and may amount to war crimes". The New York Times reported that the high rate of civilian deaths had "left the population in eastern Ukraine embittered toward Ukraine's pro-Western government", and that this sentiment helped to "spur recruitment" for the insurgents.

Displaced population

By April 2015, the war had caused at least 1.3 million people to become internally displaced within Ukraine. In addition, more than 800,000 Ukrainians had sought asylum, residence permits, or other forms of legal stay in neighbouring countries, with over 659,143 in Russia, 81,100 in Belarus, and thousands more elsewhere.

According to another report by the UN OHCHR, over three million people continued to live in the Donbas conflict zone as of March 2016. This was said to include 2.7 million who lived in DPR and LPR-controlled areas, and 200,000 in Ukrainian-controlled areas adjacent to the line of contact.

By November 2017, the UN had identified 1.8 million internally displaced people in Ukraine because of the war, another 427,240 who had sought asylum or refugee status in the Russian Federation, plus 11,230 refugees in Italy, 10,495 in Germany, 8,380 in Spain, and 4,595 in Poland.

In 2011, Ukrainian Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts had a combined population of 6.1 million. As a result of Russian military aggression in 2014, about 2 million had to leave the region as internally displaced or as refugees. After a full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, another approximately 3 million either fled or were killed, in total resulting in an 80% decrease of the Donbas population. According to political scientist Taras Kuzio, this amounts to "destruction, depopulation, and genocide".

Reactions

Ukrainian public opinion

A national survey held in March–April 2014 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 31% of respondents in the Donbas wanted the region to separate from Ukraine, while 58% wanted autonomy within Ukraine. A September 2014 International Republican Institute poll of the Ukrainian public (excluding those in Russian-annexed Crimea) had 89% of respondents opposing Russian military intervention in Ukraine. As broken down by region, 78% of those polled from Eastern Ukraine (including Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) opposed Russian intervention, along with 89% in Southern Ukraine, 93% in Central Ukraine, and 99% in Western Ukraine. As broken down by native language, 79% of Russian speakers and 95% of Ukrainian speakers opposed Russian intervention. 80% of those polled said that Ukraine should remain a unitary country. Meanwhile, 56% of those polled said that Russia should pay for the reconstruction of the Donbas, whereas 32% said Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts should pay. 59% of those polled said that they supported the Ukrainian military operation in the Donbas, whereas 33% said that they opposed it. 73% of respondents said that the war in the Donbas was one of the three most important issues facing Ukraine.

A poll conducted by the same institute in 2017 showed that 80% of Ukrainians nationally and 73% of people from the Ukrainian-controlled areas of Donbas believed the separatist republics should remain as part of Ukraine. Around 60% of the people polled did not believe Ukraine was doing enough to regain the lost territories because of the Minsk agreements.

A joint poll done by Levada and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology from September to October 2020 found that in the breakaway regions controlled by the DPR/LPR, over half of the respondents wanted to join Russia (either with or without some autonomous status) while less than one-tenth wanted independence and 12% wanted reintegration into Ukraine. It contrasted with respondents in Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, where a vast majority felt the separatist regions should be returned to Ukraine. According to results from Levada in January 2022, roughly 70% of those in the breakaway regions said their territories should become part of Russia.

By 2021, 72% of Ukrainians viewed Russia as an enemy state. In 2020, 61% of Ukrainians viewed the conflict as a "Russian aggression with the use of local militants," and only 21% argued that it was a civil war. In the East, 42.2% of respondents considered the war to be an "internal conflict." After the full-scale invasion, only 6% of respondents in the East and 1% in all other regions viewed the war as an attempt to protect the Russian-speaking population.

Russia

A series of anti-war demonstrations took place in Russia in 2014. Protesters held two protest rallies on 2 and 15 March 2014. The latter, known as the March of Peace (Russian: Марш Мира, Marsh Mira), took place in Moscow a day before the Crimean referendum. The protests were the largest in Russia since the 2011–13 Russian protests.

Boris Nemtsov said that the public opinion was being manipulated by means of agitation and propaganda, with those who opposed the government's policy denied access to the media.

Labelling of the conflict

The understanding of the nature of the conflict in the Donbas has evolved over time.

Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Turchynov said in June 2014 that he considered the conflict a direct war with Russia. According to Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, the war will be known in history of Ukraine as the "Patriotic War".

NATO said in July 2014 that it considered the conflict a war with Russian irregulars, and others considered it to be a war between Russian proxies and Ukraine. The International Committee of the Red Cross described the events in the Donbas region as a "non-international armed conflict" in July 2014. Some news agencies, such as the Information Telegraph Agency of Russia and Reuters, interpreted this statement as meaning that Ukraine was in a state of "civil war". Following the August 2014 invasion by Russian forces, in early September 2014, Amnesty International said that it considered the war to be "international", as opposed to "non-international".

According to a VTSIOM survey taken in August 2014, 59% of the Russian citizens polled viewed the war in the Donbas as a civil war. Most of those polled said that direct war with Ukraine was either "absolutely impossible" or "extremely unlikely". 28% said that such a conflict could happen in the future.

Secretary General of Amnesty International Salil Shetty said that "satellite images, coupled with reports of Russian troops captured inside Ukraine and eyewitness accounts of Russian troops and military vehicles rolling across the border leave no doubt that this is now an international armed conflict". The conflict has also been classified as part of a "hybrid war" waged by Russia against Ukraine.

Until early 2015, the European Union tended to label the participants of the conflict as "foreign armed formations" or Russian-supported separatists. After the delivery of an IntCen classified report in January 2015, the official EU documents acknowledged the presence of the Russian military in the area and started openly referring to "Russian troops in Ukraine".

A 2015 paper released by the Royal United Services Institute and a 2017 report by the RAND Corporation document how the conflict evolved from a localised proxy conflict in its early stages to a hybrid war between Russian and Ukraine, and then to a limited conventional war with the August 2014 direct invasion by Russian troops.