2026 Midterms Put Control of Congress in Play

As voting began in the 2026 midterms, prediction markets put Democrats’ chances of winning both chambers of Congress at roughly 72% to 75%, with odds of a House takeover above 90%, while Senate races remained tight. The elections are widely viewed as a referendum on President Donald Trump amid concerns about living costs, inflation, fuel prices and his Iran policy; a Democratic takeover could constrain his agenda and increase congressional oversight, including investigations into administration financing deals. Businesses and investors are watching Trump administration policy on tariffs, trade and energy as well as oil prices and market volatility; experts said markets may already reflect expected Democratic gains, making surprises more likely to drive volatility, and advised focusing on economic and industry fundamentals. High-profile contests include Ohio’s Senate race, where Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Jon Husted, and Texas, where Elon Musk’s spending has helped fuel a late campaign push. Voters are also weighing ballot questions on a proposed one-time California tax on billionaires, redistricting, transgender rights and voting rules. Control of the Senate could affect judicial nominations, while divided government could complicate budget and debt-ceiling negotiations; Trump would retain executive powers.